Last Week's Bye-elections: A 1-1 Draw, But Not all Scorelines Are Equal
A Salthill gale blew Seán Kyne over the line on the eleventh and final count, overcoming an Independent Ireland surge that had kept Noel Thomas in front from the first ballot. It was a remarkable result: government candidates winning bye-elections in Ireland is a rarity in modern times. The decisive moment came when Labour's Helen Ogbu transferred 4,249 votes to Kyne - against just 1,273 to Thomas - her voters proving deeply unwilling to reward a candidate whose profile on immigration and fuel protests made him an unattractive home for the left. Fine Gael had old friends in the right places when it mattered.
For Fianna Fáil, the picture was starkly different. Cillian Keane secured 8.7% of the vote - roughly half the party's last outing in Galway West. Sinn Fein's vote collapsed too, leaving the party trailing both Labour and the Social Democrats. Micheál Martin put a brave face on it, but the question being asked quietly in FF circles is whether these were the last Dáil electoral contests he will oversee as party leader.
Dublin Central was a cleaner story. Daniel Ennis topped the poll for the Social Democrats and was never seriously threatened, finishing well clear of Sinn Fein's Janice Boylan. The "vote left, transfer left" ambition that animated the Galway West left pact played out in a different direction in Dublin - left voters transferred along their own lines, with more than half of People Before Profit's transfers going to Ennis rather than Boylan. Labour leader Ivana Bacik put it plainly: voters simply don't believe Sinn Fein is left wing anymore.
The headline beneficiaries are Fine Gael and the Social Democrats but there’s also some signs of a Green revival, at least in Dublin. Simon Harris framed the Galway West result as a moment of growth and renewal - and now that language has numbers behind it. The Social Democrats cement their status as the form party in Irish politics and pick up the speaking rights advantage that comes with a growing Dáil footprint, leaving Labour to reflect on a weekend where its candidate outperformed but its seat count stayed at zero. For Sinn Féin, the post-mortems have only just begun.
Political Update
Government Undergoes Reshuffle Following Bye-election
This week saw a lot of change in the halls of Leinster House, with the newly elected TDs from the recent bye-elections take their seats, as well as a mini-reshuffle at the junior Ministerial ranks. New Deputies Daniel Ennis and Seán Kyne took their seats in Dáil Éireann this week following their successful elections in the recent bye-elections.
With the completion of one bye-election begins another, with the election of Sean Kyne leading to a vacancy in Seanad Éireann. Though the contest is not expected to be held imminently, frictions have already begun among the left-wing parties on the possibility of an agreed candidate.
While Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns has written to all left-wing parties suggesting a unified candidate, Labour leader Ivana Bacik has written only to the Social Democrats and the Green Party. With the political left seemingly growing closer, this move from Labour indicates that the relationships are not as rosy as may have seemed.
Following Michael Healy Rae’s resignation as a junior Minister, a mini-reshuffle took place in Fianna Fáil’s junior Ministerial ranks. Fianna Fáil’s Catherine Ardagh’s has been appointed as Minister of State at the Department of Justice. The previous holder of this role, Niall Collins, now sits as Minister of State at the Department of Agriculture, replacing Michael Healy Rae.
Economic Update
Central Bank Warns That Iran War Shock Will Test The Resilience of Irish Borrowers
The Central Bank of Ireland has warned that growing global uncertainty is increasing risks to Ireland’s financial system, with rising energy prices threatening to push inflation above 3% this year. In its first Financial Stability Report of 2026, the Central Bank said recent developments in the Middle East have brought energy markets close to the worst-case scenario outlined in its March forecasts. It warned that a prolonged energy shock resulting from the conflict involving Iran could test the resilience of Irish households and businesses.
Central Bank Governor Gabriel Makhlouf echoed this saying: "While we start from a strong position, today’s report shows Ireland faces intensified risks from the global environment."
Among the key threats identified he listed higher energy prices, asset price corrections, and growing cyber and AI-related risks. The report also highlighted concerns around the State’s finances, noting that much of Ireland’s budget surplus is driven by corporation tax receipts. Without these revenues, the public finances could move into deficit, leaving the country more exposed to economic shocks.
Ireland’s reliance on imported energy was also identified as a significant vulnerability, increasing the economy’s exposure to geopolitical tensions and disruptions in global markets.
Meanwhile, the Irish Times reports that the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates at least twice this year in response to rising inflation across the eurozone.
Sustainability Update
Government Set to Miss Key Carbon Emissions Targets
The EPA has warned that even if all additional climate measures currently under consideration are fully implemented, Ireland would achieve only around half of the emissions reductions it is legally required to deliver by 2030.
The latest projections show greenhouse gas emissions could fall by 25% by the end of the decade under the most ambitious scenario. However, that remains well short of the 51% reduction from 2018 levels mandated under Ireland's Climate Act, and the 42% reduction from 2005 levels required under the EU Effort Sharing Regulation.
The findings prompted criticism from Labour Party leader Ivana Bacik, who told the Dáil this week that the Government lacked ambition on climate action and was failing to respond adequately to the warnings contained in the EPA's projections.
The EPA also cautioned that emissions reductions could be as low as 13% by 2030 if current policies remain unchanged and planned measures are not delivered.
Responding to the report on Wednesday, Climate Minister Darragh O'Brien acknowledged that Ireland would miss its 2030 emissions targets. However, he said the targets could be achieved in the early 2030s instead.
The projections underline the scale of the challenge facing the Government, with Ireland currently on course to fall significantly short of its legally binding climate commitments
Around the world
Delhi Introduces Relief Operations in Preparation for Threatening Heatwave
On Thursday evening, Delhi Lieutenant Governor, Taranjit Singh Sandhu, reviewed the relief operations and preventive measures being undertaken as the capital attempts to cope with temperatures exceeding 46°C since mid-April, with some regions recording temperatures between 5°C and 8°C above the seasonal average.
The Delhi Revenue Department has established several dedicated stationary cooling zones and shelters across eight districts. Each cooling zone has seating capacity for 100 people and is equipped with cold drinking water, five desert coolers and five high-speed fans.
Sandhu was briefed on a series of new interventions introduced to help residents cope with the extreme, and potentially fatal, temperatures. These include mandatory hourly water reminders in schools, hydration points at metro stations, markets and bus stands, and cool roof projects