This week marks a decade since the UK vote to leave the European Union – a decision that sent shockwaves through the world overnight, and whose shadow has loomed large on UK politics and Anglo-Irish relations in the years since.
The Brexit campaign promised to “take back control” of immigration, free up more money for the country’s health service, and forge trade deals with the rest of the world.
Has it?
The much-promised economic boost has failed to materialise; the sterling has yet to recover its pre-Brexit high against the euro or the US dollar, and economists broadly agree that the UK economy is significantly smaller than it would otherwise have been. Trade has weakened, business investment and productivity growth have stalled, and households are, on average, thousands of pounds a year worse off. Weaker public finances also meant the famous bus-side promise of an extra £350 million a week for the NHS was never delivered.
Immigration from EU countries has fallen, though non-EU employment has surged since then, meaning overall immigration levels have remained largely unchanged. Unchanged too is the EU’s position as the UK’s largest trading partner.
Politically, the party system in the UK has altered significantly, with both Reform and the Greens emerging as challengers to the traditional two-and-a-half party system on the right and left respectively. Reform did not even exist a decade ago, yet now they are a force to be reckoned with on the British political stage.
After a tumultuous few years, Anglo-Irish relations have warmed once more – though it took until the fourth post-Brexit Prime Minister for this to occur. As Keir Starmer departs from office in the coming weeks, focus will be on ensuring this positive relationship endures with the next Labour leader. Most significantly, Brexit has transformed the prospect of a border poll on a potential United Ireland from a largely theoretical possibility into a credible political reality for the coming decade – something few would have considered a genuine possibility ten years ago.
Political Update
Oireachtas Committee Recommends the Decriminalisation of Possession of Drugs for Personal Use
On Wednesday, the cross-party Joint Oireachtas Committee on Drugs Use made the recommendation to decriminalise the possession of all drugs for personal use. The report cites significant evidence showing that decriminalisation is unlikely to increase levels of drug consumption.
The committee’s recommendation – which will be assessed by both the Department of Health and the Department of Justice - states that the personal possession of drugs should be met with a health-led approach rather than being treated as a criminal matter. The final report, which was endorsed by all members of the Committee, puts forward a total of 161 recommendations, emphasising the need for more family and community supports, measures to address intergenerational trauma, and an overhaul of legal and policy issues.
The report noted that based on the evidence it examined, "decriminalisation for personal possession is not likely to result in an increase in consumption". However, Tánaiste Simon Harris has urged caution, raising concerns that decriminalisation would “facilitate” gangland crime.
Launching the report, Committee Chair, Gary Gannon, said the recommendation to move to a health-led approach comes under the “recognition that criminalising people for their own drug use has not reduced harm, and that a different approach is both possible and overdue".
The committee also stressed that, if decriminalisation is introduced, the Government must ensure Garda powers relating to drug supply and sale offences, search powers, and organised crime investigations are not undermined.
Economic Update
New EU Package Aims to Cut Red Tape and Reduce the Regulatory Burden on Businesses
On Wednesday, the European Union presented a new package aimed at reducing the regulatory burden on businesses and simplifying EU tax rules.
The package is comprised of two proposals, the Taxation Omnibus and the Recast of the Directive on Administrative Cooperation (DAC), both of which aim to modernise the EU's direct tax framework and strengthen the competitiveness of the Single Market.
The new measures include ending withholding taxes for intra-EU dividends, interest and royalty payments, streamlining financing rules, and removing overlapping reporting requirements. According to the European Commission strategy, these changes could save businesses up to €8 billion in annual compliance costs.
The package will now be submitted to the European Parliament for consultation and the Council for adoption. EU tax legislation requires unanimous approval from all 27 member states before it can be finalised.
The simplification package is in line with broader EU efforts to improve competitiveness and productivity, which will be a key theme of Ireland’s upcoming EU Presidency.
Sustainability Update
Heat Dome Causes Record Breaking Heatwave Across Europe
This week’s heatwave across Europe has seen temperatures reach close to 40°C across France, Spain, Germany and Belgium, with the extreme heat being driven by a weather pattern known as an omega block, or “heat dome”.
A Heat Dome is a slow-moving area of high pressure that typically forms over large continental land masses. According to Met Éireann meteorologist Matthew Martin, Heat Domes prevent warm air from rising, trapping heat near the Earth's surface - with little cloud cover, prolonged sunshine further heats the landscape.
Though not a new phenomenon, experts warn that human-caused climate change is making these events more severe. As the fastest warming continent on Earth, Europe is now experiencing heatwaves that are 2–4°C hotter than they would have been without global warming.
As average temperatures continue to rise, weather patterns like omega blocks are producing increasingly intense and dangerous heatwaves year on year – this week dozens have died across Europe, from heat stroke and drowning incidents, while infrastructure and power supplies have been put under pressure, and schools and cultural landmarks forced to close.
Around the World
Peru Presidential Candidate Rejects Election Result Over Overseas Ballots
Peru's presidential election has been plunged into uncertainty after left-wing candidate Roberto Sánchez said he will not recognise the result unless votes cast by Peruvians abroad are excluded from the final count.
Conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori leads by around 40,000 votes, with overseas ballots proving decisive. Sánchez claims the vote was mishandled, stating that Peruvian consulates overseas did not use a government-provided app to scan tally sheets as required by law.
While Peru's Foreign Affairs Ministry says the change was approved because of technical problems, Sánchez has argued that the procedural change created opportunities for fraud.
The dispute raises fresh concerns about political stability in Peru as electoral authorities prepare to certify one of the country's closest presidential races in recent history.