Political news this week was dominated by the publication of the long-awaited report into the process by which Jim Gavin was selected as Fianna Fáil’s candidate for the botched Presidential election campaign in October. The report was scrutinised by the Parliamentary Party in a fractious five-hour meeting in Leinster House on Tuesday evening.
Most analysis of the report’s fallout has focused on the leadership of Taoiseach Micheál Martin. Criticism of Martin centres on three different issues. One is his general leadership style, which has been characterised as top-down with authority centralised in a small group of advisors and allies, most of whom were intimately involved in the decision to run Gavin. Another is his decision to look outside the party for a candidate. Critics argued that choosing a ‘known quantity’ from within the party’s own ranks who had already been subject to political scrutiny would have been significantly less risky. Martin’s allies countered that the last time Fianna Fáil backed a candidate from outside the party was in 1997, when they supported the successful campaign of Mary McAleese. Finally, Martin’s opponents expressed anger at the way in which the publication of the report was handled. TDs, Senators and MEPs complained that they only saw a copy of the report an hour before the meeting.
Despite all these issues, commentators generally agree that Martin’s leadership is safe for the time being. Because he is likely nearing the end of his political career, prospective challengers calculate that they are better served waiting for Martin to step down of his own volition, perhaps following Ireland’s presidency of the European Council next year.
A greater cost is borne by party Deputy Leader, Minister for Public Expenditure and Director of the Presidential Election Jack Chambers. Chambers is Martin’s clear favourite as a successor, having in 2024 appointed him as the youngest Minister for Finance since Michael Collins. The report is clear that Chambers played a central role in the decision to back Gavin – something that opponents in a future leadership contest will be quick to recall.
Political Update
This week saw the publication of Fianna Fáil’s internal review of its abandoned presidential campaign. The report concluded that Jim Gavin was warned that any past disputes with tenants would emerge under scrutiny, but consistently told party officials he had no recollection of any such issue. Party officials accepted those assurances following what they described as an unusually intensive due-diligence process. The issue only came to light during the campaign when a former tenant contacted the party, revealing an unpaid sum of €3,300, after which party support for Mr Gavin was withdrawn and he exited the race.
The report identified no new or previously unknown facts but was critical of the absence of any formal framework for selecting a presidential candidate within Fianna Fáil. It stated that this allowed an informal process to develop in which potential nominees sought the support of senior figures, disadvantaging other interested candidates and leaving many parliamentary party members unaware that Mr Gavin was being considered for several months.
The handling of the campaign and its collapse prompted a tense parliamentary party meeting, at which Taoiseach and party leader Micheál Martin faced criticism over transparency, timing and the management of the selection process. Mr Martin has taken responsibility for mistakes in the campaign but rejected calls for a confidence motion, arguing that decisions were taken in good faith and that early polling of Mr Gavin had been positive.
The review estimated the failed campaign will cost the party between €350,000 and €400,000 and describes it as highly unusual that Fianna Fáil has never had formal rules for choosing a presidential candidate. It recommends the development of a clear, structured selection process in advance of future presidential elections, to be agreed by the party through its internal rules and ard fheis.
Economic Update
ICTU advises private-sector unions to pursue higher pay claims in 2026
The Irish Congress of Trade Unions has advised private-sector affiliates to seek pay increases of between 4.7% and 6% in 2026, where sustainable, citing strong economic growth, full employment and ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
The guidance, informed by analysis from the Nevin Economic Research Institute, notes expected economic growth of around 3% annually to 2028 and rising productivity. While some export-exposed sectors face uncertainty, ICTU said many parts of the economy remain robust.
ICTU warned that wages must rise by at least 2.5% next year to keep pace with inflation and said recent budget decisions, including the dropping of tax indexation, will leave many workers worse off. General Secretary Owen Reidy said unions must factor this into pay negotiations, arguing workers are entitled to protect living standards amid high living costs and rising executive pay.
Alongside pay claims, ICTU urged unions to prioritise low-paid workers and seek improvements in entry pay, working hours and non-pay benefits such as leave and pensions.
Sustainability Update
Ireland’s consumption of oil and gas reportedly increased in 2024, underlining the difficulty of reducing emissions, according to the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland. Oil use rose by 2.7% and gas by 3%, while overall energy-related emissions fell by 1.5%, largely due to increased electricity imports from Britain rather than domestic decarbonisation.
The SEAI have warned that emissions are falling at a pace below what is required and that economic growth has not yet been structurally decoupled from fossil fuel use. Its Energy in Ireland report highlights data centres as a major pressure point, with electricity demand from the sector up 10% last year and accounting for 88% of total electricity demand growth over the past decade.
The report also shows that fossil fuels continue to dominate Ireland’s energy mix. Diesel and petrol accounted for 93% of transport fuels, while oil and gas supplied 90% of heat for homes and industry. Fossil fuels generated just over 45% of electricity, with the remainder coming from renewables and imports.
The report has found that electricity generation and transport will exceed their current five-year carbon budgets, with the transport overshoot described as significant. Slow growth in renewable energy is also expected to hinder progress towards the EU target of renewables meeting 43% of energy demand by 2030.