This week, political attention in Ireland sharpened on the two Dáil by-elections due in May in Dublin Central and Galway West, triggered respectively by Paschal Donohoe’s departure to the World Bank and Catherine Connolly’s election as President. With the line-up for both contests beginning to emerge, these races are already shaping up to be a fascinating early read on the political mood. Key watch outs will be party positioning on housing and public services, and on immigration, which looks set to be one of the most closely watched undercurrents in both by-elections.
Dublin Central has piqued interest with a crowded field that includes the Social Democrats, Sinn Féin, the Greens and a range of independents lining up in one of the most concentrated left-leaning constituencies in the country. At this stage, it feels like it could become a shoot-out between the Social Democrats and Sinn Féin, but Dublin Central has a long-standing reputation as something of a political “group of death,” where crowded ballots and unpredictable transfers can upend even the best-laid plans. Transfer friendly positioning will be critical in what will be an early test of the ‘centre-left’ alliance. Galway West promises a similarly intriguing contest, as a constituency that elected a real mix of political affiliations in 2024.
While the by-elections will consume political focus in Q2, they are in no way comparable to the impact of the EU Presidency in the second half of the year. With Government departments understandably focused on coordinating Ireland’s priorities across the Union, domestic priorities may take somewhat of a back seat for much of the latter half of the year.
Taken together, the by-elections and the Presidency cycle paint a picture of a political environment in flux: contested local battlegrounds offering early barometers of public sentiment, and a Government balancing international leadership with the everyday pressures felt by citizens and stakeholders alike. Communications and public affairs teams should pay close attention not just to electoral signals, but to the institutional rhythms shaping decision-making behind the scenes.
Political Update
Residential Tenancies Bill Passes Dáil Vote
On Wednesday night, legislation to introduce significant changes to the rental market was passed in the Dáil, beginning its passage through the Seanad last night.
The Residential Tenancies Bill 2026 was passed by 80 votes to 70. The legislation will allow landlords whose properties become vacant to reset rents to market rates from the 1st of March. There will be no changes for existing leases, but new tenancies will be subject to a minimum duration of six years to give greater security of tenure to tenants.
There has been distain for the Bill on the left, as the Opposition claims it favours corporate landlords. Labour’s housing spokesman, Conor Sheehan, said the changes would result in “a real return to economic evictions,” stating that the legislation is intended for large institutional investors and major property developers, rather than for smaller SME builders, and that it shows no benefit for renters.
The Social Democrats’ housing spokesman, Rory Hearne, echoed this sentiment, saying that the new legislation was based on a “flawed market theory of housing,” with no social conscience behind the Government’s decision making.
The Government has said that it is introducing the legislation as part of an effort to attract more investment in the property market. Defending the legislation on Wednesday, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said the Government was “biting the bullet and taking action” off the back of recommendations made by the Housing Commission.
Economic Update
New Data Shows Lowest Irish Mortgage Rates in Three Years
New data from the Central Bank shows that Irish mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest level in almost three years, offering welcome relief to homeowners and prospective buyers alike. According to the latest figures, the average interest rate on new fixed rate mortgages agreements eased to 3.44% by the end of December 2025. This figure is down from 3.53% in November 2025, and 3.8% the previous year.
The Central Bank’s statistics show that fixed-rate mortgages, which account for 92% of new home loans in Ireland, have become marginally cheaper, while variable-rate products remain more expensive but have also eased in recent months.
The drop in rates comes as lenders adjust to more stable European Central Bank (ECB) policy, with the ECB keeping its’ rates on pause since June 2025. This has encouraged competition among Irish lenders, contributing to the downward pressure on mortgage pricing.
Despite the reduction, Irish mortgage rates remain above the EU average. The bloc’s average was 3.32% in December, making Irish mortgage rates the sixth highest in the euro zone. The Central Bank also reported that the average interest rate on new variable rate mortgage agreements was 4.17% in December, up nine basis points from November.
While Ireland’s mortgage rates are still high by European standards, the latest Central Bank data signals a maintained trend towards more affordable borrowing conditions, marking the lowest point for rates since February 2023.
Sustainability Update
Climate Committee Reports Thirty Barriers Preventing Ireland from Meeting its 2030 Climate Targets
Last week, the Joint Committee on Climate, Environment and Energy published a detailed report identifying thirty key barriers preventing Ireland from meeting its 2030 climate targets.
The report highlights a broad range of failures in planning, governance, infrastructure, as well as government resolve. The Government’s climate change policies were heavily criticised, pointing to a lack of political will and delayed implementation.
One of the central concerns was a reliance on “unallocated savings,” meaning energy reduction targets were being included in official emissions projections without credible plans for how those targets would be met. The committee warned that this lack of clarity could undermine legally binding carbon budgets.
Energy infrastructure was identified as the biggest obstacle. Long-standing issues such as grid capacity constraints, delays in crucial transmission projects, and a lack of storage capabilities show the result of decades of underinvestment and poor planning. The rapid growth of data centres further exacerbates these pressures.
In agriculture, barriers include high costs of methane-reducing technologies, insufficient incentives for farmers to adopt climate-friendly practices, and slow progression around bioenergy and forestry targets.
The Committee’s findings underline the scale of the challenge Ireland faces as the country strays farther away from its 2030 climate commitments. The report points to insufficient ambition from the Government and the need for a more proactive approach with clearer planning, faster delivery mechanisms and more targeted policy support.
Around the World
Switzerland to Vote on Plan to Cap Population at 10m
Switzerland is due to hold a vote in mid-June on a proposal to cap its population at 10 million. The country’s population now lies at 9.1 million, having increased by 25% since 2000.
The Swiss Parliament and Federal Council (executive branch) have both recommended voting against the measure, warning that it could be damaging to economic growth, limit companies’ access to foreign workers, and derail agreements with the EU.
The initiative, supported by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), proposes to limit the population to 10m residents by 2050 and put response measures in place should the population surpass 9.5m ahead of 2050.
According to official figures, Switzerland’s foreign population lies at 27% - one of the highest proportions of foreign residents in Europe. The referendum comes at a time of increasing unease over immigration levels across Europe, as well as broader concerns for housing and access to public services. A recent poll has found 48% of respondents to be supportive of the measure, which could result in a closely contested vote come June.