Last week, Government published its much-anticipated Accelerating Infrastructure Taskforce Report and action plan. While the plan aims to unlock our infrastructure delivery, ultimately it is anticipated that this will also ramp up delivery of our housing stock, which remains the number one issue facing Government. There is a sense – including within the Government parties – that unless the latest iteration of the national housing plan can finally shift the dial on housing delivery in the term ahead, the electorate may finally decide to end a century of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael rule. We can therefore expect pressure to continue to grow on James Browne and his ministerial colleagues to deliver, and pressure can cause cracks, and unforced errors – the latest of which came in the form of a Department of Housing video earlier this week advising young people on how to adjust to living back at home with their parents.
Sinn Féin Housing spokesperson Eoin Ó Broin said that the video by the Department of Housing was “almost like the person who sets fire to your house then hands you a bucket of water to put out that fire”, while Labour Party leader Ivana Bacik described it as “beyond satire”. No doubt the video was well intended, but it was tone deaf and defeatist in giving the impression that the only solution to homelessness is adults moving back home with their parents. The Government’s political survival through the ongoing housing crisis will depend on how it addresses two related challenges. One is the design and implementation of policies that will scale up social, affordable and private housing delivery to the level required to ease the pressure that has built up in the housing market in recent years.
On this front, significant work has been done, including this week’s publication of a €25bn investment plan for the Department of Housing to support the recently launched housing policy Delivering Homes, Building Communities 2025-2030. The other is the effective communication of the scale and nature of the challenge, and the rationale for the Government’s policy response. This week’s video was an unfortunate and unhelpful slip-up in that regard.
Political Update
Ireland Considers Final Voting Position On Mercosur Trade Deal
Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Simon Harris, speaking from Brussels this week, has said the Government was “taking stock” of the proposed agreement. More than twenty years after negotiations first began, the deal remains finely balanced, with a key EU vote expected next week. Mercosur would create a transatlantic free trade zone between the EU and Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael risk being outflanked by Independent members of the coalition, several of whom have expressed deep concern about the potential impact on Irish farmers. The Programme for Government commits to “work with like-minded EU countries to stand up for Irish farmers and defend our interests in opposing the current Mercosur trade deal”. At the same time, it also pledges to accelerate efforts to open new markets for Irish food products, underlining a clear tension in the Government’s position.
Intensive discussions are under way between Ireland and other like-minded member states, including France, on whether a blocking minority can be assembled. Pressure from farming organisations has been sustained and is likely to weigh heavily as Cabinet moves towards a formal decision on Ireland’s stance.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa are currently scheduled to travel to Brazil on 20 December for the signing of the agreement with Mercosur partners. Whether that timetable holds may depend on how the coming days unfold. All eyes are on Brussels.
Economic Update
ESRI Outlook Flags Moderate Growth with Heightened External Risk Exposure
A new Economic Outlook from the ESRI projects sustained but moderating growth in Ireland’s domestic economy over the next decade, while highlighting significant exposure to global economic shocks. Under its baseline projection, the domestic economy is expected to grow by an average of 2.3% per annum to 2030, easing to 2.1% between 2030 and 2035. The ESRI emphasises that this is a projection rather than a forecast and does not factor in the impact of future shocks.
The report notes that Ireland has shown strong resilience in recent years, successfully absorbing the economic impacts of Brexit, Covid-19 and energy price shocks. However, it warns that the economy remains highly vulnerable to a negative global environment, particularly driven by changes in US trade policy and wider international uncertainty. Ireland’s reliance on multinationals for employment and corporation tax revenue is identified as the primary structural risk.
ESRI director Martina Lawless said the outlook points to steady growth over the next decade, with longer-term pressures from population ageing and climate-related costs emerging after 2035. She highlighted investment in education, public infrastructure and R&D as critical to strengthening resilience and mitigating future risks.
Sustainability Update
NPWS Report: 90% of Ireland’s Habitats Now in Unfavourable Condition
An assessment by the National Parks and Wildlife Service (NPWS) has found that 90% of Ireland’s protected natural habitats are now in unfavourable condition, marking a further deterioration since 2019, when 85% were rated as such. The findings indicate that many habitats are continuing to lose the species that define them, increasing the risk of long-term degradation or loss.
Of the habitats assessed under the EU Habitats Directive, 48% are rated as bad, 42% as inadequate and just 10% as favourable. Only 9% show signs of improvement, while 51% are in decline. The report identifies agricultural pressures - particularly inappropriate grazing, drainage and pollution from manure and chemical fertilisers - as the most significant drivers of habitat loss. Additional pressures include invasive species, residential and commercial development, forestry, road infrastructure and interference with rivers and natural water flows.
The outlook for species is more mixed. Excluding birds, which are assessed separately, 58% of the 60 monitored species are classed as having favourable status, a 1% improvement since 2019.
Minister for Nature Christopher O’Sullivan described the findings as disappointing but stressed the need to maintain momentum in conservation efforts. NPWS director general Niall Ó Donnchú said the results should act as a catalyst to accelerate action. The report, which exceeds 1,000 pages, will inform Ireland’s first Nature Restoration Plan, due to be submitted to the EU by next September, and underlines the scale and urgency of the task ahead.
Keith Hoare, Managing Director, Public Affairs