Irish people love to talk about the weather, and they love to talk about politics. This week, they’ve been talking about both in equal measure. Freezing temperatures across North America have strengthened and redirected the jet stream, resulting in waves of unsettled weather across the island of Ireland. This has resulted in weather stations at Dublin Airport and the Phoenix Park recording the wettest January since 1948.
Much like in our politics, weather patterns on the other side of the Atlantic can have serious impacts on people in Ireland.
But the rain has also had a more direct link to Irish politics. On Monday, Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Housing Minister James Browne and OPW Minister Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran visited flood-affected homes and businesses in Wexford, Wicklow and Kilkenny. The message delivered by these senior political figures was clear – climate change is increasing both the severity and frequency of flood events, and a public policy response is needed to adapt to that new reality.
Late last year, the Government published a series of ‘sectoral climate adaptation plans’, one of which was focused on flood risk management. Critics might argue that it was overly focused on non-transformative solutions, such as data collection, impact assessment and awareness raising.
What’s really needed is a comprehensive action plan that first and foremost incorporates flood risk into the planning process, ensuring that new communities do not develop in flood prone areas. Secondly, the plan should protect homes and businesses through up-stream ‘nature-based solutions’ such as peatland restoration, afforestation, restoration of riparian vegetation and the establishment of sustainable urban drainage systems. Where these natural solutions are insufficient, traditional engineered solutions such as flood walls may be needed. Finally, when all else fails, the system must be able to warn people in advance and compensate them for damages when they occur.
Much like the other kind of transatlantic disturbance, this issue is not going to go away any time soon.
Political update
Sinn Féin Maintains Lead as Poll Shows Fragmented Party Landscape
Sinn Féin continues to lead Irish political polling in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll, despite a modest dip in support. The party now stands at 24%, ahead of Fianna Fáil on 19% and Fine Gael on 18%.
Among smaller parties, the Social Democrats have moved into clear fourth place, rising to 7%. Labour has slipped back to 4%, level with both the Green Party and Independent Ireland, each of which have made gains. Aontú remains on 3%, while People Before Profit–Solidarity is unchanged at 2%. Support for independent candidates stands at 15%, slightly down on the previous poll.
Fianna Fáil continues to perform strongest in Munster, polling at 27%, and Micheál Martin’s personal ratings have improved, with satisfaction in his performance as Taoiseach rising to 37%. He now leads the party leaders’ standings, ahead of Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald and Fine Gael’s Simon Harris, both of whom have seen declines.
Fine Gael remains below its 2024 general election result and has lost further ground among middle-class voters. The poll also highlights a longer-term challenge for both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with weak support among voters aged 18 to 34.
These findings are of particular interest given the news this week that the by elections to fill the vacated seats of Catherine Connolly and Paschal Donohoe will take place in May, as announced by the Taoiseach.
Economic Update
ECB Holds Rates as Inflation Continues to Ease Across Eurozone
The European Central Bank has opted to maintain current interest rate levels, beginning 2026 with no changes to its monetary policy stance. The deposit rate remains at 2%, while the main refinancing rate, which influences tracker mortgage pricing, is unchanged at 2.15%.
This decision extends a period of policy stability that has been in place since mid-2025. Prior to this pause, the ECB implemented a series of eight rate reductions over 12 months, cutting benchmark rates by half from their peak of 4% as inflationary pressures eased across the euro area.
In a statement following the meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council said it expects inflation to settle at its medium-term target of 2%, while noting that economic conditions across the currency bloc have remained broadly stable despite a difficult international backdrop.
The announcement follows the publication of January inflation data by Eurostat, which showed consumer price growth in the eurozone slowed to 1.7%. National inflation rates, however, continue to diverge. Ireland recorded an annual inflation rate of 2.7%, the highest in western Europe and above the ECB’s target.
Sustainability Update
Research Shows Climate Change Intensifying Flood Risk in Ireland
An analysis by Maynooth University and Met Éireann has found that climate change made this week’s floods nearly three times more likely to occur. The research showed that total rainfall over the week was 9% higher than it would have been without human-induced global warming. The high volume of rainfall in the seven days leading up to, and including, Storm Chandra turned the storm into a significant flooding event, causing widespread damage across Ireland.
According to the research, a flooding event of this scale is now expected to occur once every 60 years, compared with once every 150 years in a pre-industrial climate. The analysis forms part of a series of studies carried out by Wasitus, a joint project between Met Éireann and the Icarus Climate Research Centre at Maynooth University.
The study focused on counties Louth, Dublin, Wicklow and Wexford, which were worst affected by Storm Chandra and the subsequent flooding. The significant damage in these counties prompted the Government to approve an increase in financial assistance for affected small businesses, from €20,000 to €100,000. Officials have said initial payments of up to €5,000 will be available within one to two days, with further payments of up to €20,000 provided following assessments.
Around the World
Spain Moves to Ban Under-16s from Social Media amid Online Safety Push
Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sánchez has unveiled plans to ban social media access for children under 16, as part of a broader effort to make online spaces safer and to curb hateful, harmful and illegal content. The proposal, announced at a global summit in Dubai, would require platforms to implement robust age-verification systems and could include holding tech executives legally accountable for harmful material.
The move has drawn fierce criticism from tech figures, notably Elon Musk, who labelled Sánchez a “tyrant” and “fascist totalitarian” on X in response to the plans. The proposed ban aligns Spain with other countries considering similar restrictions amid rising concerns about children’s mental health, online abuse and the impact of unchecked algorithmic content. Parliamentary approval is still needed for the measures.