Our Perspectives

The findings suggest that tweeting was less important for the public at large than other online platforms, local radio is a very strong source for political information in some parts of the country and the publication of opinion polls can be a double edged sword for parties doing well.

Undoubtedly online media played a more significant role in GE11 than in any previous campaign. Those closest to the political scene – candidates, media, party workers - embraced a variety of new media channels for getting their message out.  However, to what extent did voters generally respond to this extra activity?  Knowing which media sources are favoured by different demographic groups can aid parties to target their messaging during election campaigns.  Amarach Research asked one thousand people what media source they relied on most for information before polling day.

Unsurprisingly, TV at 41% and radio at 19% were the most favoured media sources for political information.  However tying for third place at 15% each were newspapers and online sources. 

The appetite for online political information was strongest among those under twenty four with almost a quarter of that age cohort (23%) relying most on online sources.  By contrast, only 6% of over forty fives favoured web based sources most.

The online sources most favoured were blogs and discussion boards, media websites, Facebook and political party websites.  Of all those who relied most on online sources, only 5% cited Twitter as their primary source suggesting that for all the hype that certain political tweets have generated, few placed a high dependence on it.   Four times more people preferred Facebook, reinforcing the view that many voters like to know more about the qualities of their local candidate.

The Amarach research also makes some interesting findings about the contest between national and local media.  Across both radio and newspapers, national sources hold a strong lead.

63% of those who relied on radio most for information tuned into national radio stations against 37% who favoured local radio.  But there are very significant regional variations.  Three quarters of those living in the Dublin region prefer national radio while the position is almost reversed in Connacht/Ulster where 64% of residents favour their local stations.   

The preference for national over local is more pronounced when it comes to newspapers with 78% of those who rely on print favouring national titles against 22% who like to read local.

In the twenty five days between the 30th January and the 23rd February, no fewer than thirteen national opinion polls were published.  The average scores of this poll of polls for the top four parties were all less than two percentage points off the final outcome, demonstrating again that the best way to read polls is by looking at their long term trend.

The election result was closest for Fine Gael at 36.3% - virtually on the nose with their final result.  Ironically, Fine Gael’s vote fluctuated more than any other party’s over the thirteen polls.  They started the campaign at 33%, rose to a high of 40% before settling back to 36% on polling day.  Over the course of the campaign, the polls showed the party enjoying a steady rise in support, to the extent that single party Government became a possibility as the final week came into sight.  Many commentators suggest that Labour’s pleas for a balanced Government in the final days of the campaign may have won back two or three precious percentage points on polling day.  This view is supported by Red C’s Recall Poll which confirmed that single party Government was not a popular concept and that Labour gained most from the concern.

It is legitimate to suggest that the publication of positive opinion polls initially created a sense of momentum which attracted more support to Fine Gael, but eventually the polls put the party on the back foot because of nervousness about single party Government. 

Amarach asked one thousand people if they believed the publication of opinion polls during the campaign influences how people vote.   A small majority- 56% - believed that it did, with 44% disagreeing.  However those under twenty four are much more convinced that opinion polls influence voter behaviour with a whopping 71% agreeing.  Many of those surveyed would have been first time voters and the result suggests that a political party which is rising in the polls would be well advised to use social media channels to push out that story.

Overall, the message from this survey is that the air war of the election campaign continues to be fought mainly on the traditional media, but future campaigners need to pay attention to emerging new media channels and to certain regional media if they want to maximise the impact of their message.

Gerry Naughton is a Client Director in the Public Affairs Division of Drury

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