Our Perspectives
Why the 30th Dáil will see its full course as is.
19 June 2009
Iarla Mongey
There are many lessons arising from the results of the European and Local Elections, but the outcome holds one certainty for the government parties. The current coalition of Fianna Fáil, the Greens, 2 former PDs and 4 independents, is going nowhere fast. This is not a judgemental assessment around performance – it is rather a conclusion arrived on consideration of the current configuration of parties and alignments within the 30th Dail and what motivates each of its 166 members at this point.Let’s first address the misnomer of a potential alternative government without a general election. The proposition that the Greens could cross the floor of the Dáil to join forces with the opposition parties is a non runner. In order to reach the required Dáil majority of 84 votes, it would require the additional support of the full opposition, Sinn Féin and 2 independents. The ideological mix of Fine Gael, Labour, Greens, Sinn Féin and Independents would represent such a highly unstable and volatile arrangement as to render it unworkable. The inexperience of new ministers in such demanding roles would exacerbate the situation. Their prospects of survival would be minimised even further by the significant negative fall out that is an inevitable consequence of the many tough political decisions still required, in order to bring us out of recession.
If there’s any silver lining to the disastrous performance of the Green Party in these elections, it is that it could actually help Fianna Fáil to bed down the current coalition for the next 2 to 3 years. The Greens must come to terms with the grim reality that they actually have a smaller core vote than they thought. The votes which put them into power in 2007 clearly came from largely non-core floating voters who are part of that rejectionist section of Irish society that vote for change every time. And against the backdrop of a severe economic downturn, unemployment hitting 400,000 people, tax increases and the kind of budgetary measures that see social welfare spending sacrificed to stave off the collapse of the Irish banking system, how else was that extremely disaffected rump going to vote except once again against the ruling parties?
So if the Greens were to step outside the door tomorrow morning and call a general election, whatever about the fate of Fianna Fáil - the remaining Green TDs could well be swept away also in that tide of anti-government sentiment. The advice therefore is to stay indoors and hope the hurricane eases as the recession abates. As for Fianna Fáil – even if some of their backbenchers break ranks as the next wave of cuts come down the line, and follow in the wake of Jim Mc Daid and Joe Behan – most will know their best electoral prospects would probably best lie just outside the fold as Independent Fianna Fáil TD’s – where they could still speak more freely but in all likelihood continue to prop up the government in the everyday business of the Dáil.
So we come back to the current arrangement - the best possible option for both Fianna Fail and the Greens is to actually hold the line within government and try and fight their way out of this recession together, as best they can. They may ultimately benefit from the winds of international recovery but only if they baton down the hatches and set a firm course for the next 24 to 36 months.
And what about the claim that retaining the status quo would run contrary to the will of the people? The suggestion that the government has lost its mandate is, I believe, another red herring. The outcome points more towards a general disillusionment with Irish politics on the whole – the fact that Fine Gael performed well had a lot to do with the fact that the electorate really wanted Fianna Fáil to suffer. But I wonder if voters went as far as saying they wanted the opposition to take over instead.
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